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Shoot-Out at the Inflation Corral


By Justice Litle, Taipan Publishing Group

Untitled Document

Today we'll hear from a colleague down under, Dan Denning, about the coming boom in Australian resource stocks. But first, in the spirit of Friday, some quick takes on a few notable events of the week.

The Federal Reserve further shredded its credibility this week by electing to hold interest rates steady. When it comes down to it, they really had no choice in the matter. But after a round of especially tough talk on inflation, the match-up of words and deeds doesn't look too good.

Introducing the Axis of Not-So-Evil? The Bush White House surprised a lot of folks this week -- and angered many political allies -- by lifting sanctions against North Korea. It's a pretty dramatic break for an administration that was all about being tough on terror. Bush also seeks to remove North Korea from the U.S. terrorism blacklist... which sort of begs the question, who should still be on it?

Gun owners had reason for good cheer this week, as the Supreme Court addressed Second Amendment rights for the first time in seven decades. The supremes struck down a Washington, D.C., gun ban as unconstitutional, affirming that individual citizens have the right to bear arms. Can't help but recall a Thomas Jefferson quote here: "The strongest reason for the people to retain the right to keep and bear arms is, as a last resort, to protect themselves against tyranny in government."

Holy Commodities, Batman! With the Fed’s inflation-fighting credibility in the toilet, and the Dow and financial stocks swirling down with it, commodities are rocketing higher left and right. Gold saw its biggest surge in two years. Corn is at record highs, oil is at record highs, soybeans are racing up the charts, cattle are sky-high, and so on.


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It's all enough to make Warren Buffett remark that inflation is "exploding." That's the word the Oracle of Omaha used on CNBC on Wednesday. Perhaps Warren had just stopped by the local Whole Foods to check out the price of lentils and flaxseed. They're up 148% and 135% year on year, according to USDA data. Humble soybeans and wheat are up roughly 73% and 80%.

Meanwhile, General Motors (GM:NYSE) recently hit its lowest level since 1954. GM hasn't traded in the mid-$11 range since before JFK was president. When the stock was last this low, giant tail fins and men's hats were still in style. At less than $7 billion, General Motors' market cap is now roughly 60% of Chinese Internet start-up Baidu.com's (BIDU:NASD) -- even though March quarterly revenues were 75 times bigger than Baidu's.

Is Iran holding out? So much for help from the Saudis. Word is that idle Iranian supertankers have the ability to hold 30 million barrels of crude off the market. That's five months' worth of extra Saudi oil -- giving Iran plenty of room to help keep prices high. New threats of an output cut from Libya aren't helping matters, either. Crude is at new highs now and could break $150 a barrel soon.

Taipan's own Sandy Franks is watching the price of a gallon of gas, and she doesn't like what she sees. "Like it or not, $4 gas isn't going away anytime soon," Sandy opines, "and it's not out of the question to think we'll be paying $7 in the near future. The stark reality is that the world is entering a new phase of globalization that will be dominated by demands of water, food and energy... Whoever takes office on January 20, 2009 will need to face up to reality and develop a foreign policy that deals head on with how all the world's developing countries will make use of the limited resources left."

If Congress deals with high-priced oil by punishing traders, Hong Kong will be ready. Senator Joe Lieberman is leading the charge to "do something" about expensive oil and gas by laying blame at the feet of speculators. (Funny how politicians struggle with the basic concept of supply and demand, especially when votes are at stake.) If the brouhaha in Washington spills over into a trading ban, though, Asia could be ready... Hong Kong is reportedly ramping up plans for a new commodity exchange, to take advantage of all the buying and selling as China grows. Money likes to go where it's best treated, as forex traders like to say, and when push comes to shove, commodity traders will do the same.

That does it for the Friday recap, but don't head off into the wild blue yonder just yet. If you don't keep reading, you’ll miss news on some exciting developments down under.

Dan Denning, a capable fellow editor in Melbourne, has been kind enough to give Taipan readers the lay of the land for the Aussie resource sector. It's a different world down there, and one well worth checking out. By all means, don't miss what Dan has to share... and then have a great weekend!

Warm Regards,

JL

 


 

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